Thursday, January 03, 2008


The networks are all calling it: Obama wins Iowa. Clinton and Edwards are fighting it out for second place. Obviously, I'm really happy about this, but I know it's not over by any stretch. Clinton's chances in New Hampshire are still pretty good, but Obama will likely benefit from a serious slingshot effect from Iowa and come in and do similar numbers in New Hampshire. If Hillary had won tonight, the nomination would have been hers, period. Obama wasn't able to come back from an Iowa loss. But tonight's Obama win doesn't necessarily signal an Obama nomination. Hillary's got a great organization and the establishment's behind her, so it's too early to count her out, but this is a very big deal for Obama.

And on the Republican side, Mike Huckabee won for the Republicans. The big message Iowa sends by choosing these two candidates is that the country wants change. Two terms of Bush has disgusted just about everyone in the country by now, and the "experience" candidate or the "establishment" candidate isn't going to cut it this cycle. But even though Huckabee skews slightly left on some issues, it's a little frightening to me that the Iowa evangelicals thought the answer to our current fundamentalist president is an even more fundamentalist president. Born Again Bush thinks public schools ought to "teach the controversy" when it comes to "intelligent design" versus evolution. Huckabee just straight up doesn't believe in evolution. It's a little frightening to me that Iowa Republicans think the answer to a president who couldn't point out Iraq on a map before he invaded it is to nominate someone who responds to questions about the assassination of Bhutto in Pakistan with assurances that he'll crack down on Pakistanis coming into the US. What?

Anyway, a good night for Obama and real change in the country.

Also: my predictions were right on. Word.


nathan said...

Thank god!!!! I'm so excited right now, I wet myself, just a little.

NH and SC and I think we've got it. Especially if Huckabee ends up with the nomination.

harwell said...

So...looking at the full results on it would seem as if the margins between Obama, Clinton, and Edwards in the number of actual votes (not percentages) is really very slim. Very slim. I'm not going to profess to understand any of how this all works, but to my idiot eyes it would seem as if any one of these three could win New Hampshire without being considered an upset victory based on those numbers from Iowa. What really surprised me was that Guiliani got TROUNCED. Kind of amazing how his image has changed today from seven years ago.

As for Huckabee, I think you ought to be careful what you wish for Hinesy. I think regardless of who the candidates end up being, the Democrats are going to have to fight very hard to earn a victory and God knows they haven't been too good at that in the recent past. Do not underestimate the power of the Dark Side, dude.

Anonymous said...

The media needs to let go of Iowa as the great bellwether for the rest of the country. Like one of the pundits said this morning, Iowa is a good civics lesson but NH is the real test with voters actually going into a booth and selecting the candidate they want. The closeness of the voting on the democratic side indicates it is still wide open, and so many people believe Hillary can't win that she is so divisive because the Rep machine has been saying that from the outset, people think she can't win because that's what they have been told.

I think the problem with younger women not supporting Hillary is because they didn't live through the struggles that older women have,trying to gain a modicum of equality, they think it has always been at the level they are now.

Hillary represents an opportunity for women to overcome that belief that women cannot lead the most powerful country in the world. She has to win, to break that barrier, to allow the country to embrace the idea that women are capable and completely equipped to lead. Hillary's election will be momentous and life changing and will inspire the next generation of women to continue to aspire to greatness, and to show this country,men and women alike that we are truly equal, and in some very basic ways better.



Mo-Lith said...

From Wiki:
Iowa Caucus:
February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)

See its bonk, NH is more real. Let see how the AA south treats Obama...

nathan said...

I disagree. I don't think you can say it's "bonk" from those statistics.

You got to remember that Harkin was a Iowa Senator. No one took the Iowa caucus seriously in '92 because everyone knew it would go to the hometown boy, so no one really even campaigned in Iowa for that election. So those factoids don't really support the point you're trying to make.

As to Crane's mom...It's not the Republicans that worry me about Hillary..It's not the fact that they say she's divisive that makes it true. It's the fact that Independents and moderates say it as well. Too many people just don't like her. Hate her, in fact. If she were the candidate, it would push the entire middle over to the right. And she would bring out a lot of conservatives that might stay home in November. I'm all for a woman president...but I don't think it's going to be her.

CresceNet said...

Gostei muito desse post e seu blog é muito interessante, vou passar por aqui sempre =) Depois dá uma passada lá no meu site, que é sobre o CresceNet, espero que goste. O endereço dele é . Um abraço.

David said...

I think voting for Hilary just BECAUSE she is a woman, and what that might represent is the wrong way to look at things. She is NOT a good candidate for president. period.

Sadly, I'm not finding anyone that seems to wonderful choice. The Ron Paul dude seems have good stuff to say, but I think he a shot in hell.

David said...

nevermind about ron paul...i did little more reading on him, dont like him either.

this country is f**ked

harwell said...

Whew. You have no idea the can of worms you almost opened with Heath by bringing up Ron Paul...

nathan said...

Yes, be careful or he'll call you and keep you on the phone for 3 hours, preaching the Ron Paul Doctrine.