The networks are all calling it: Obama wins Iowa. Clinton and Edwards are fighting it out for second place. Obviously, I'm really happy about this, but I know it's not over by any stretch. Clinton's chances in New Hampshire are still pretty good, but Obama will likely benefit from a serious slingshot effect from Iowa and come in and do similar numbers in New Hampshire. If Hillary had won tonight, the nomination would have been hers, period. Obama wasn't able to come back from an Iowa loss. But tonight's Obama win doesn't necessarily signal an Obama nomination. Hillary's got a great organization and the establishment's behind her, so it's too early to count her out, but this is a very big deal for Obama.
And on the Republican side, Mike Huckabee won for the Republicans. The big message Iowa sends by choosing these two candidates is that the country wants change. Two terms of Bush has disgusted just about everyone in the country by now, and the "experience" candidate or the "establishment" candidate isn't going to cut it this cycle. But even though Huckabee skews slightly left on some issues, it's a little frightening to me that the Iowa evangelicals thought the answer to our current fundamentalist president is an even more fundamentalist president. Born Again Bush thinks public schools ought to "teach the controversy" when it comes to "intelligent design" versus evolution. Huckabee just straight up doesn't believe in evolution. It's a little frightening to me that Iowa Republicans think the answer to a president who couldn't point out Iraq on a map before he invaded it is to nominate someone who responds to questions about the assassination of Bhutto in Pakistan with assurances that he'll crack down on Pakistanis coming into the US. What?
Anyway, a good night for Obama and real change in the country.
Also: my predictions were right on. Word.